OBAMA CAMPAIGN MEMO - WELCOME TO OHIO

Delightful, Friendship, Purity, Honesty and Paradise, Greasy Ridge, Hardscrabble, Worstville, Tick Ridge, Fleatown, Hell's Corners, Devil Town, Assumption, Knockemstiff, Lickskillet, Mudsock and Round Bottom: 

What do all these towns have in common? 
10/21/2012

The heart of it all, in the 2012 presidential election

Greetings Ohio citizen. You are a very special person. Can't you tell? If you're not in Ohio, you may not be as special, but you're tolerable. 

16 days before the 2012 presidential voting day and it's a great time to be from the Buckeye State, is it not? 

The Obama campaign sure thinks so. And why not? It's very likely that Ohio will decide the next four years in terms of who will be President of these United States.  It will be the "Florida" of 2012.

As such, the polls in this state have been front and center for a couple of months. President Obama has always been in the lead  with his lead contracting from a margin of about 9 points in March 2012, about 3 points, now, in mid-October 2012 .

Ohio is normally seen as fertile ground for republicans. After all, its republican Governor, John Kasich is an old Fox News employee. Regardless, many have attributed the state being in President Obama's  corner as due to a few factors including, the effect of the  Auto Bailout (auto-making affects 1 of 8 jobs in the state) and the fact that jobs numbers are much better in Ohio in than they are nationwide. This is a fact that even Governor Kasich is touting. Governor Romney must love that.

But the race has apparently been tightening in Governor Romney's favor. All polls show that.

Some people, a group that includes me, feel that 2 things should be remembered when looking at these tightening polls. 1. These polls DO NOT include early and absentee voters. Early and absentee voting in many battleground states like Ohio and Iowa, is booming. and the estimates say it could be as high as 35-40%; 5-10% higher than in 2008.  But early voters are NOT polled. That's an antiquated part of the polling system that should be updated. 2. Obama  is leading with early voters. A fact the campaign has laid out below. Since early voting started in Ohio on October 4, 2012, every day that Obama is in the lead, he is actually winning.

My personal theory is that Governor Romney has hit his ceiling in Ohio, regarding the polls. Not every statistical tie, is created equal. And there is certainly a difference between a 3 point lead that can be recovered and one that cannot be. I think that the fact that Governor Romney has never lead in Ohio, shows Obama's lead there to be of the latter persuasion. I'm certain people will remind me of this on November 6th, 2012, if I'm wrong.

Regardless of my own sloppy electoral predictions, the Obama campaign has always maintained, from the beginning that this will be a close race. Nonetheless, the campaign has released the following document regarding Ohio, which I received this morning. Four more years: 

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Memo from Jeremy Bird, National Field Director re: Early Voting in Ohio

Democrats are building upon the historic grassroots organization we built in Ohio in 2008, including our 125 Obama for America offices in every corner of the state. As a result of that strong foundation and enthusiasm for President Obama, today we are ahead of where we were at this time against John McCain - and ahead of Mitt Romney. Republicans are similarly talking up their ground game and early vote numbers, but their assertions rest on much shakier ground.

Before we address Republicans' claims, here are some numbers reflecting Democrats' strong position in the critical state of Ohio:

1.    All public polling shows that the President has a double-digit lead among those who have voted:

·     Survey USA found that Obama leads by 19 points (57/38) among those who have voted already.

·      Rasmussen, a Republican pollster, found that Obama leads by 29 points (63/34) among those who have voted already.

·      The Wall Street Journal/NBC poll found that Obama leads by 26 points (63/37) among   those who have voted already.

·      PPP found that Obama leads by 52 points (76/24) among those who have voted already.

2. Registration numbers strongly favor President Obama:

·      Four in five Ohioans (81 percent) who have registered to vote in 2012 are either female, younger than 30, or African-American or Latino - all demographics that strongly favor President Obama.

·      Nearly two-thirds (64 percent) of Ohioans who have registered to vote in 2012 - and the same percentage among those who have already voted -live in counties that President Obama won in 2008.

3. Early vote numbers strongly favor President Obama:

·      More than half (55 percent) of the early-vote ballots requested so far this year have been requested by women, 3 percentage points greater than 2008 early voters.

·      582,402 ballots have been requested this year from precincts that Obama won in 2008, 33,414 more than in from precincts that McCain won.

·      The total number of votes already cast this year (both by mail and in-person) from precincts Obama won in 2008 is 261,304 - 55,636 more than from precincts McCain won.

·      Democrats' margin over Republicans in votes cast has increased by 21,792 compared with this point four years ago.

Mitt Romney's campaign is touting "the gains Republicans are making across Ohio since early voting began," saying that they are "out-performing voter registration in Ohio's largest counties." But there is a major flaw in this claim, as Professor Michael P. McDonald explained:

The problem with this assertion is that Ohio does not have party registration. "Party" in Ohio is a record of the last party primary a voter participated in. Naturally, with only a contested 2012 Republican presidential primary, the number of "registered Republicans" in the state increased.

It turns out Republicans' mangled math isn't limited to a mystery tax cut plan that doesn't add up.

Because Republicans had a competitive primary this year and Democrats did not, as Professor McDonald points out, Republicans have a 460,000-person edge this year in past primary voters­, or what Romney's campaign is disingenuously referring to as "voters registered as Republicans."

Despite our smaller numbers, however, Democratic primary voters are outvoting Republican primary voters by a wide margin across the state. A greater percentage of Democratic primary voters than Republican primary voters have requested a ballot, have returned a mail ballot and have voted in person. Altogether, 145,880 Democratic primary voters have cast ballots, 28,013 more than Republican primary voters.

President Obama is winning early vote among primary election voters in the key battleground of Ohio. 

OBAMA CAMPAIGN MESSAGE AND STRATEGY BRIEFING

It's like the bat signal

For all my Obama Supporters. A Message from OFA...
10/12/2012

Below, is a campaign briefing I received this morning from an unlisted YOUTUBE link put up by OFA headquarters in Chi-town. I can only assume that I received this due to my past volunteer work on the Obama campaign, as well as my small monetary contributions.

I better get a victory party invite, too.

While this link MUST be sent to you for you to see it (A GBJ EXCLUSIVE!). I believe that it is OK to share, particularly cause it says "share it with your friends," underneath the clip.

I like the video, but I'm a partisan wonk. This is gonna be boring as hell to most normal humans. To me, it makes some of the best cases, unemotionally, for President Obama. In fact, while watching it, a right-wing house guest of mine was listening in the other room and was impressed with the clarity of the message in comparison to "most of the propaganda" I listen to (his words). He had no idea what I was watching, or where it was from.

I realize that there are opponents of the President who will see this video and mock it but I'm hoping that they would not want to sit through 20 minutes of this "Kool-Aid" stuff. So this isn't directed at them.

This, is about winning an election. Period.

For the Detractors, allow me to address you now...

Ahem.

FOUR MORE YEARS!

MITT ROMNEY "TO DO" LIST: 1. OPEN MOUTH, 2. INSERT FOOT

For all you "freeloaders" out there. 
9/20/2012

Most Americans. No, Most people on earth, by now know of presidential candidate Mitt Romney's "off the cuff" comments on the working poor at the home of Marc Leder, private equity mogul of Sun Capital Partners and sex party host, in May of this year. 

Incidentally, Mr. Leder is a man who was personally inspired by Mr. Romney's tenure at Bain Capital, to go into private equity in the first place. In the secretly-taped video, Romney made several controversial comments, including mentioning that 47% of people in America, all Obama voters, pay no federal income taxes and that welfare is creating culture of dependence upon government and that's why they won't respond to his message of "low taxes." His implication was that president Obama is buying votes by supporting their dependent lifestyles. 

An excerpt:

There are 47 percent of the people who will vote for the president no matter what. All right, there are 47 percent who are with him, who are dependent upon government, who believe that they are victims, who believe the government has a responsibility to care for them, who believe that they are entitled to health care, to food, to housing, to you-name-it. That that's an entitlement. And the government should give it to them. And they will vote for this president no matter what…These are people who pay no income tax…[M]y job is is not to worry about those people. I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives.

Later in the video, Mr. Romney implies that his campaign would be a lot easier if he were born to Mexican parents. I bet a lot of Mexicans would disagree. He also maintains that Palestinians have no interest whatsoever in peace and the the conflict with Israel will remain an unsolved problem in the region. What leadership.

The video was taken by a self-proclaimed "opposition researcher" from Georgia at the 50k-a-plate dinner and put on Youtube. It was then found by James Carter IV, grandson of the former president, who by the way, Mr. Romney never hesitates to dis from the campaign stump. It goes to prove the old adage that nobody needs more enemies. From there, it ended up in the hands of Mother Jones, a liberal web mag, who formally "broke" the story, nationally. At press time, the magazine claims to be preparing more provoking excerpts for release.

The video spurned an uproar in the media. Mainstream press in 41 states mentioned the video release on the front page,  with negative implications. Some conservative bloggers don't believe the statement was a big deal. Many down-ballot republicans jumped ship. RNC Chairman, Reince Priebus opined that Mr. Romney was "on message." Others, a group that includes me, were tremendously offended by such statements, that implied a real malice for the working poor in this country, if they are Obama supporters. The crime of that demographic? Not making enough money. 

Mr. Romney's first response to the release of this video, was a statement to imply that he would like the "whole thing" released, rather than excerpts. The owner of the video quickly obliged on Youtube. (at bottom of post). Mr Romney doubled down on his comments, first in a hastily called 10PM press conference, then in a USA today OP-ED.

Within 72 hours, the Obama campaign released a commercial exploiting The Romney campaign's gaffe:

(Obama ad-2 minutes)

See, Mr. Romney can't take the comments back, cause the tea party wants to hear him speak that way. And the people he dissed, he's already written off anyway, regarding their vote. Another precarious position for a politician to be in. You don't have much respect for the people you largely need to vote for you.

Soon after the release of the video, and candidate Romney's response, more news broke. It was revealed (I first noticed the story on NPR) that Mr. Romney's father, George Romney, former Governor of Michigan, was a welfare recipient for 5 years as a child. This is a fact that Mr. Romney's mother, Lenore LaFount Romney, proudly cited in reference to his relation to the common man, during George Romney's Michigan Gubernatorial race in the early 1960's.

(Mr. Romney's mother-3minutes)

On top of welfare, the Romney family apparently received 100K from the federal government as relief for having fled to Mexico and losing their assets in returning to America. Why did they flee? Cause the Romneys and other Mormons in their group wanted the freedom to practice polygamy. They saw government restriction of marriage as oppressive. How ironic. Someone should ask Mr Romney how he feels about government restricting marriage rights now. 

(Charts-Click to enlarge)

As I mentioned, I am disturbed by Mr. Romney's comments. While my conservative friends are quick to point out that I was not ever going to vote for Mitt Romney anyway, I take particular umbrage at the implication that the working poor of America have to be "convinced" into personal responsibility and caring for their own lives. My conservative friends are also quick to point out that Obama had a similar gaffe during the democratic primary four years ago when he implied that rural folk cling to "guns and religion." It is widely speculated that Obama lost PA to Hillary due to this gaffe and he still pays a political price for it, to this day. However, it's important to point out that Obama was talking of reaching these voters, as opposed to writing them off as Romney implicated.

Where I'm from, "personal responsibility" isn't measured by how much federal income tax one pays. It is my understanding that most people would like to be in the highest tax bracket, if not to pay more taxes. And as you can see from the chart above, it's not like the poor aren't working, or haven't worked all their lives, in the case of seniors who pay no income tax.

I take umbrage to Mr. Romney's statement, because I believe it perpetrates a stereotype of the poor that is most oppressive to them. This kind of stereotype is made of the same type of stuff that makes it hard for the long-term unemployed to get work. "If you are poor, or unemployed, something must be wrong with you. It's your own fault." This "hatred of the poor" seems emblematic of most Americans. But in my experience it has no foundation, and only makes a bad situation, more difficult to get out of for those that need our assistance. Many people have needed welfare as a safety net, and rebounded becoming fully productive members of society, like George Romney did. In short, Mr. Romney telling rich people, behind closed doors that poor people are losers, does nothing to help poor people to escape poverty and in fact, hurts them. Is this something a potential president of everyone-rich and poor-should be caught saying behind closed doors?

One more thing. I suspect Mr. Romney may have cut off his nose to spite his face regarding that 47%. It most likely includes his most loyal base: White seniors, who generally, pay no federal income tax on Social Security. Can you say Florida? A state Mr. Romney can't win without? Politically, Mr. Romney's statement was unpresidential, unproductive, degrading, untrue and just plain stupid.
(Fundraising Video-37 minutes)